A New Model To Predict The Future Of A Disease

Little is known about how the majority of human infectious diseases will be affected by future global environmental changes. Scientists have developed a new predictive model to know about how the diseases, specially ‘Ebola Virus Disease’ (EVD), will be developed by 2070.

What Is Ebola?

According to a research published in “The New England Journal of Medicine,” of April 2014 issue, fruit bats of Pterpodidae family, are natural hosts and potential reservoirs of most lethal Ebola virus known, named Zaire ebolavirus. The Zaire Ebola was the causative agent of outbreak in Western Africa. That outbreak in West African nations had been described by the WHO as the worst in history.

Zaire Ebolavirus strain is the most lethal of the six known strains (including the newly discovered Bombali strain); it is fatal in up to 90% of cases.

Ebola Virus
Source: CDC

The filovirus genome contains seven genes, including VP40. The natural reservoir of the virus is thought to be the African fruit bats.

Ebola is transmitted through direct contact with the blood or bodily fluids of infected symptomatic person or through objects contaminated with infected environment. Infected “bushmeat” of bats or gorilla, usually serves as the first exposure to diseased animal food.

The incubation period of Ebola virus can range from 2 to 21 days.

The symptoms of Ebola virus include fever, sore throat, diarrhea and internal and external bleeding, with a fatality rate approaching 90 percent.

There is no cure and no known vaccine of EVD, although efforts are going on to design one.

The viral RNA fragments were found in an oral swab from a greater long-fingered bat (Miniopterus inflatus), captured in 2016 in Liberia’s Sanniquellie-Mahn District, which borders Guinea.
Source: Science

The Model

Scientists of University College London, Prof David Redding and Prof Kate Jones, used a mathematical model to analyze “Ebola Outbreak Dynamics” and to understand how climate change, land use, population growth and poverty will affect a disease spread. They back-tested the model to check its validity and confirmed that the model was able to successfully predict past outbreaks. Then, they “pointed” it in the future. They found that unless action is taken to limit population growth, greenhouse gas emissions, and social inequality, the likelihood of new outbreaks will rise significantly. Poverty and climate change, in particular, are two main contributors to outbreak risk. Climate change and poverty can increase the risk of an outbreak, researchers warn.

The problem with climate change is that it makes more environments available for disease-carrying species. Climate change will directly lead to net negative health impacts. According to WHO, climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0–3.5 °C and will increase the spread of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. Amongst these are fungi transmitted Cryptococcus gattii infection, algal transmitted Ciguatera fish poisoning, tick vector transmitted Lyme disease and mosquito vector transmitted West Nile Virus encephalitis, Chikungunya, Rift Valley Fever, Zika virus paralysis and Dengue fever and Bats transmitted Ebola Outbreak by Ebola virus. Other equally important diseases, which will spread and prevalent due to climate change, include respiratory allergies due to increased human exposure to pollen, molds, air pollution and dust, cancer risk due to increased duration and intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and heat-related illness and deaths.

In the case of EVD, fruit bats are thought to be a reservoir of the virus. Ebola virus risk will be compounded by increasing populations which in turn will push people to new areas of previously untouched forests (home to bat species which can transfer the disease). Thousands of people died due to ‘2013–2016 Ebola outbreak’ in West African nations.

Ebola Virus Ecology and Transmission
Source: CDC

The model is not an exact prediction but the statistical predictions it makes can be extremely useful. This new model predicts where Ebola might strike next. For instance, the predictions pointed to potential outbreaks in places such as Nigeria, which have not yet had an Ebola epidemic. These areas, prone to a probable Ebola outbreak, may be made prepared so that the nation can save numerous lives.

The model also predicts where the disease might spread to other parts of the world, via airlines. Western Europe and the US are prone to import some infected individuals, as is Russia, China, India, and much of Asia.

The model suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention.

Two thirds of human infectious diseases are animal-borne (zoonotic) and these diseases form a major, global health and economic burden, mostly impacting poor communities. Many zoonotic diseases are poorly understood, and global health responses to them are underfunded. This model framework can also be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many other zoonotic diseases.

Climate change makes more environments available for disease-carrying species. Researchers of ‘University College London’ found that unless action is taken to limit population growth, greenhouse gas emissions and social inequality, the likelihood of new outbreaks will rise significantly. Poverty and climate change, in particular, are two main contributors to outbreak risk.

In all realistic simulations, the incidence of Ebola will rise. In the worst case scenario, the area affected by “spillovers” (transmission of Ebola from animals to humans) can rise by 15%, which brings a substantial increase in outbreak risk.

This model predicts future global change scenarios, with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development, a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events.

This model will play an important role in predicting about diseases and will be helpful to make a possible strategy to control the disease before it take the shape of a ‘outbreak’.

Mass Awareness Through Anti-deforestation ‘Red Tape Movement’

Earth is under the grip of climate change which, in turn, is the result of increasing level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs)—due to deforestation, urbanization, industrialization, pollution and increasing human population. Melting of polar ice caps, oceanic acidification, increasing global temperature, flood, drought, increasing sea level, and depleting biodiversity are important impacts of “Climate Change”. Anthropogenic activities are raising the level of CO2 by about two parts per million a year in the atmosphere.

According to the Centre For Research On The Epidemiology Of Disaster (CRED) & UNISDR, people exposed to natural hazards in low-income countries are seven times more prone to deaths, and six times more prone to injuries or displacement compared to equivalent populations in high-income countries.

According to the IPCC 2014 report, the damage caused by climate change will increase as temperatures rise, and it will affect vulnerable populations through food insecurity, higher food prices, income losses, lost livelihood opportunities, adverse health impacts, and population displacements.

Climate change threatens to create a vicious cycle for the world’s poor, as further warming pushes more people into poverty, increasing their vulnerability to climate impacts. Extreme weather threatens critical services like electricity, housing, food production and water supply. According to UNISDR, climate-related and geographical disasters have killed 1.3 million people worldwide and injured 4.4 billion in the last 20 years.

Globally, floods are the most frequent natural disaster, affecting the highest number of people across the biggest geographical area. According to NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority), India is highly vulnerable to flooding with more than 40 million hectares or 12% of India’s total geographical area prone to floods. So, we must develop a better and natural “GHG Sink system” to achieve 350 ppm CO2 level in the atmosphere. Trees are the “Best Natural Sinks” of CO2 on land and will be helpful to tackle climate change.

Red Tape Movement

I started the Red Tape Movement as an anti-deforestation awareness movement to save trees and biodiversity, when I was posted as the District Savings Officer of District Etawah (Uttar Pradesh, India), on June 5, 2008.

Under this movement, especially on holiday, we choose a village or community place and do a plantation drive, tie red tapes on existing tree trunks with the help of people and administer an “oath to save nature”. We deliver the message that cutting trees will be lethal for us and our generations to come. Since 2008, we have tied red tapes on thousands of trees and made people at grassroots aware of climate change and the importance of nature conservation. The Red Tape Movement is working actively to achieve the UN’s SDG 13.

Rise For Climate

The Red Tape Movement was also the global partner for the “Rise For Climate” global event and had organised the event in more than 350 education departments of rural schools through “Teachers Club Uttar Pradesh” and “Mission Shikshan Samvad Uttar Pradesh”. About 10,000 students and teachers participated in this event on September 8, 2018. The general-secretary of “Teachers Club Uttar Pradesh”, Mr Avanindra Jadaun (District Etawah) led the event along with Mr Vimal Kumar, Teacher in Junior High School (District Kanpur Dehat). On September 8th, rural schools, in throughout Uttar Pradesh, participated in a plantation drive aimed at making students and villagers aware of environment conservation and climate change. Students tied red tapes on tree trunks and took an “oath” to save trees and biodiversity, and to live an environment-friendly life.

Special Drive

This year the Red Tape Movement is running a “Saplings to Trees” awareness drive. “Care After Plantation” is critical because, after plantation, people rarely go back to look at the status of the seedlings they planted; hence, the saplings often die. Trees give us life; it’s our duty to look after them as our family members.

The “Saplings to Trees” drive, between August 14- October 02, 2019, encouraged people at grassroots to help the saplings to grow into trees. Thousands of teachers, about 300,000 students and about 1.5 million family members and villagers participated in the drive between August 14 to October 2, 2019. Mission Shikshan Samvad and Teachers Club Uttar Pradesh were the main organisers of this drive.

Red Tape Movement in the Himalayan province in Uttarakhand, India.

Global Climate Strike

Red Tape Movement also participated in the recent “Global Climate Strike” between September 20–27, 2019 in different regions of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the students and teachers organised an awareness program for the villagers to bring home the message of saving and protecting saplings after plantation. Students, teachers, residents, police, religious heads, officers, local leaders and inmates in jail—all are participating for a better future!

Some pictures from the event:

Every Step Counts (Our Pledge)

We are at a tipping point. Now, we can’t live with energy from fossil fuels. 21st Century is the “Century Of Climate Change”, and it’s time to re-empower our communities with clean and renewable energy so that we can make it the “Century Of Renewable Energy”. Anything less than this is out of line.

“United” we can save earth from Climate Change, through such peoples participatory grass root awareness movements and by living an eco-friendly life, for our future generations to come.

Global Loss Of Forest Cover

“And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.”

– John Muir

Forests hold more than three-quarters of the world’s biodiversity, provide many products and services that contribute to socio-economic development and are particularly important for hundreds of millions of people in rural areas. The livelihoods and food security of many of the world’s rural poor depend on forests and trees.

Forests are home to many species of birds, reptiles, arthropods, annelids and mammals. Thus, forests are the foundation of most life on Earth. But, forests and dependent biodiversity are facing the impacts of anthropogenic climate change due to deforestation, urbanisation, industrialisation, pollution and increasing human population. Anthropogenic activities are raising the level of carbon dioxide by about two parts per million a year in the atmosphere.

A tribal family in Koraput, Odisha. (Photo: Shiv’s fotografia/Wikipedia)

World population is projected to increase from around 7.6 billion today to close to 10 billion people by 2050. Global demand for food is estimated to grow by 50% during this period; it will place enormous pressure on forests to agriculture land conversion which will threaten the livelihoods of foresters, forest communities and indigenous peoples, but also the variety of life on our planet. We can expect a loss of habitat, land degradation, soil erosion, decrease in clean water, dropping of ground water and the release of carbon into the atmosphere.

TheGlobal Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) and FAO found that the world’s forest area decreased from 31.6% of the global land area to 30.6% between 1990 and 2015. According to Britannica, in the 19th century, tropical forests covered approximately 20% of the dry land area on Earth, but by the end of the 20th century this figure had dropped to less than 7%. In India, according to State of Forest Report 2017, the total forest and tree cover in India was 80.20 million hectares, which was 24.39% of the geographical area of the country with a reduction of 0.34 million hectares of moderately dense forests due to forest degradation.

Three-quarters of the globe’s accessible freshwater comes from forested watersheds but 40% percent of the world’s 230 major watersheds have lost more than half of their original tree cover. An estimated 18 million acres (7.3 million hectares) of forest, which is roughly the size of the country of Panama, are lost each year, according to FAO. It is estimated that 15% of all greenhouse gas emissions come from deforestation, according to the WWF. The growing intensity of wildfires and their spread to new corners of the globe is a big danger for forests. This is really alarming.

The Importance Of Forests

Apart from food, fodder and medicine, forests supply about 40% of global renewable energy. About 2.4 billion people depend upon forests for basic energy services. Forests and trees play a crucial role in controlling greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They act as carbon sinks and absorb about 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide each year.

What Do We Do Now?

The value of ecosystems to human livelihoods and well-being amounts to $125 trillion per year. The United Nations Strategic Plan for Forests 2017–2030 includes a target to increase forest area by 3% worldwide by 2030, signifying an increase of 120 million hectares, an area over twice the size of France. Urgent action must be taken to reduce the loss of forests, habitats and biodiversity which are part of our common heritage and which support food and water security. Climate change mitigation and/or adaptation are the need of the hour if we are to ensure peace and security.

When A Forest Is Destroyed…..

“When a forest is lost, then an ecosystem and dependent life is lost” – Prabhat Misra

A forest is a large area dominated by trees. There is no universally recognised or precise definition, with more than 800 definitions of forests used around the world. Although a forest is usually defined by the presence of trees, under many definitions, “an area completely lacking trees may still be considered a forest if it grew trees in the past, will grow trees in the future, or was legally designated as a forest regardless of vegetation type.”

Forests cover a third of the world’s land. According to the World Bank’s World Development Indicator 2016 “At the beginning of the 20th century, the Earth’s forest area was about 50 million square kilometers. According to the World Bank’s World Development Indicator 2016, since 1990, the world has lost 1.3 million square kilometers of forests, an area larger than South Africa.”

According to a study published in the research journal ‘Nature’ dated September 2015, there are about 3 trillion trees on Earth, which amounts to about 400 trees per person. “Of these trees, approximately 1.30 trillion exist in tropical and subtropical forests, with 0.74 trillion in boreal regions and 0.66 trillion in temperate regions.” It is estimated that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by approximately 46% since the start of human civilization. Tropical regions have been seeing the fastest loss of forests.

World Bank’s report titled ‘Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience’, concluded that “The world would warm by 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if we did not take concerted action now”.

According to a study by Michigan University’s ‘Global Change Curriculum’, it is only after more than 100 years that forests become as they were before they were cut.

According to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), current extinction rates are about 1,000 times higher than before humans came along, and future rates are likely to about 10,000 times higher.

The UN General Assembly has declared 2011-2020 as the UN Decade on Biodiversity. The United Nations proclaimed May 22 the International Day for Biological Diversity (IDB), to increase understanding and awareness of biodiversity issues.

According to Ecologist Fredrick Clements, who worked on the concept of predictable change in vegetation time, ecological succession is a process involving several phases:

• Nudation: Succession begins with the development of a bare site, called nudation (disturbance).
• Migration: refers to the arrival of propagules.
• Ecesis: involves the establishment and initial growth of vegetation.
• Competition: as the vegetation becomes well established, grows, and spreads, various species begin to compete for space, light, and nutrients.
• Reaction: during this phase autogenic changes such as the buildup of humus affect the habitat, and one plant community replaces another.
• Stabilisation: a supposedly stable climax community forms.

A forest consists of many components that can be broadly divided into two categories: biotic (living) and abiotic (non-living) components. The living parts include trees, shrubs, vines, grasses and other herbaceous (non-woody) plants, mosses, algae, fungi, insects, mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and microorganisms living on the plants and animals and in the soil. Forests are often home to many animal and plant species.

Research shows how forests account for 75% of the gross primary productivity of the Earth’s biosphere and contain 80% of the Earth’s plant biomass. Net primary production is estimated at 21.9 gigatonnes carbon per year for tropical forests, 8.1 for temperate forests, and 2.6 for boreal forests.

Scientists have recorded how the first known forests on Earth arose in the Late Devonian (approximately 380 million years ago), with the evolution of Archaeopteris. Archaeopteris quickly spread throughout the world, from the equator to subpolar latitudes. Archaeopteris formed the first forest by being the first known species to cast shade due to its fronds and forming soil from its roots.

The greenhouse effect resulting in an increase in temperature is likely to bring profound allogenic changes. Allogenic succession is caused by external environmental influences and not by the vegetation. Climate change often occurs at a rate and frequency sufficient to prevent arrival at a climax state.

Forests provide a diversity of ecosystem services including:

• Converting carbon dioxide into oxygen and biomass. A full-grown tree produces about 100 kg of net oxygen per year.
• Acting as a carbon sink. Therefore, they are necessary to stop climate change.
• Aiding in regulating climate. For example, research from 2017, show that forests can induce rainfall. If the forest is cut, it can lead to drought.
• Purifying water.
• Mitigating natural hazards such as floods.
• Serving as a genetic reserve.
• Serving as a source of lumber and as recreational areas.

According to the special report on Global Warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October 2018, to avoid temperature rise by more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, there will need to be an increase in global forest cover equal to the land area of Canada (10 million km2), by the year 2050.

So, when a forest is destroyed, like in Aarey, then an ecosystem will die. Let’s come and raise our voice to save forests.

Are Plantation Forests Eco Friendly Or Just ‘Green Deserts’?

A forest is a complex, biodiversity-rich, self-regenerating ecosystem, consisting of soil, water, microclimate, and a wide variety of plants and animals in mutual coexistence, on a piece of land. Trees are naturally regenerated in ‘natural forests’. Natural Forests have high biomass density, i.e., they sequester more carbon and have ‘continuous plant growth’.

A natural forest is made up of many layers, i.e., it is multi-storey. The main layers of all forest types are the forest floor, the understory and the canopy. The ’emergent layer’ exists in tropical rainforests. Each layer has a different set of flora and fauna, depending upon the availability of sunlight, moisture and food. Thus, natural forests are biologically diverse, and home to many rare species threatened species, and endangered species’. ‘Natural Forests’ host more than 70% of terrestrial biodiversity and are critical for life on the planet.

Forests grow around the world, from the equator to polar regions. Different climates have different kinds of forests e.g., in cold climates conifers dominate, in temperate and tropical climates flowering plants dominate. Different rainfall also has different kinds of forests. No forest exist in deserts, just a few xerophytes are dispersed.

Anthropogenic factors (human impact on the environment) are encouraging logging, forest fires, acid rain, invasive species introduction, shifting cultivation and deforestation. Excessive deforestation reduces biodiversity, affect natural forests and also indigenous species that rely upon old-growth forest habitat. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation report-2010, ‘agriculture expansion is increasing deforestation’.

In 1997, the World Resources Institute recorded that only 20% of the world’s original forests remained in large intact tracts of undisturbed forests, and among these, more than 75% of forests are found in three countries: boreal forests of Russia and Canada and the rainforest of Brazil.

Plantation programmes are being carried out globally, along with conservation of natural forests, to protect biodiversity, to ‘change climate change’ by increasing the ‘carbon sink area’, for soil and water conservation, and for industrial wood production. However, according to this article, “Plantations are most likely to contribute to biodiversity when established on degraded lands rather than replacing natural ecosystems and when indigenous tree species are used rather than exotic species.”

Single Species Plantation Forests Are Not Natural Forests

But, new forests or plantation forests or anthropogenic forests are not completely equivalent to natural forests or old-growth forests in terms of species diversity, resilience and carbon capture. Plantations, going globally, are usually monoculture, that is, large saplings of the same species are planted across a given area, whereas a natural forest contains a more diverse range of tree species. In a true sense, single-species plantation forests are not natural forests.

Plantations of single tree species may have very different ecosystem characteristics than do many native forests. Monoculture plantations have very little biodiversity, require human intervention and use of large amounts of herbicides and pesticides. They have ‘less biomass density‘, sequester less carbon and have a single storey. These are managed forests, in which the trees of the same age, and generally of the same species, are planted; this is done chiefly to maximise the production of the wood fibre.

Plantations may include tree species that would not naturally occur in the area e.g. hybrids and genetically modified trees.

In ecological terms, plantations are always young forests. What does this mean? Such forests do not contain the type of growth, soil or wildlife which is usually seen in of old-growth, natural forest ecosystems.

The Problem With Plantation Forests

Plantation forests are the cause of numerous environmental problems in many countries because of mostly single-species dominance. For instance, in Indonesia, where palm oil plantation is causing a threat to many species, including red apes or orangutans, only 15% of native species can survive the transition from primary forest to a plantation. In Indonesia, multinational pulp companies have harvested large areas of natural forest. About 50% of the 1.4 million hectares of pulpwood plantations in Indonesia have been established on what was previously natural forest land.

Single species plantations have a negative impact on biodiversity, communities, and local economies which includes, loss of biodiversity, depletion of water sources and water pollution from pesticides and agrochemicals used.

Annually, September 21st is observed as the ‘International Day of Struggle against Monoculture Tree Plantations’.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation projects a huge increase in monoculture tree plantations: between 40 and 90 million hectares will be planted by the year 2030.

So, next time, when you opt for plantation, first ensure that it is not going to be a monoculture. This step will be helpful to save the depleting biodiversity and will maintain the ‘high biomass density’ of the ‘future forest’ so that they will be able to sequester more carbon and will help to ‘change climate change’.

Care After Plantation

“To exist as a nation, to prosper as a state, to live as a people, we must have trees.”

― Theodore Roosevelt

“People who will not sustain trees will soon live in a world that will not sustain people.”

― Bryce Nelson

Forests are one of the planet’s first lines of defense against climate change, absorbing as much as a quarter of man-made carbon emissions each year. Apart from this, trees play unconditional and more very important roles on Earth.

Plantation drive is run with the aim to increase green cover, renovation of forests and creating anthro-forests or man-made forests.

Ethiopia set the World Record for ‘most trees planted in a day’ on July 29, 2019 as part of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ‘Green Legacy Initiative’, a reforestation plan to address Ethiopia’s rapid tree loss.

But, despite these global as well as local campaigns and efforts, green cover is not improving very fast. This shows that only plantation is not important but `Care After Plantation‘ (CAP) is also equally or more important for ensuring the survival of a planted sapling and it’s development in a tree.

The saplings are like children that needs nurturing, care and proper environment to grow in. Where the saplings do not find such conditions to grow, results are not good; many saplings die before achieving the status of trees. The ‘Care After Plantation‘ (CAP) will take care of saplings, growing young trees and biodiversity.

Five-year maintenance time is a must for the success of plantations. Most saplings die in the first year. Saplings which have been growing since the past five years, typically grow in to a forest.

Due to lack of pre and post planting management, moisture stress, poor soil, planting unmanageable number of seedlings, lack of enforcement and monitoring system at grassroot level, it is not possible to achieve the maximum success in complete transformation of saplings into trees. Climate change will alter global tree coverage. If we take no action then the global potential canopy cover may shrink by about 223 million hectares by 2050, with maximum losses in the tropics.

The landowners, communities, businesses, students, teachers, employees, officers, leaders and other stakeholders should play an important role in ‘Care After Plantation’.

Saplings should be planted according to ‘city master plan’ and ‘Village Development Plan’ so that they do not have to be cut later. Saplings planted on the roadsides are prone to grazing, vehicular interference, grazing and human interference.

The’ Future Developed Nations’ will have high ‘Green Governance’, ‘Carbon Negativity’, ‘Forest Cover’, ‘Sustainable Development’, ‘Household Size’, ‘Education’ and ‘Health’. The’ CAP’ will help to achieve these targets through people’s participation. It will raise awareness at grassroot level and will help to increase the ‘green cover’. The resultant forests will create wildlife habitat, increase carbon sink area, provide oxygen, reduce flood risk, prevent soil erosion, increase groundwater, improve aesthetics and increase sustainability. The ‘CAP‘ will encourage people to learn about plant species, management of pests and diseases, plantation land management and conservation methods.

Students and Teachers are playing important role to cause awareness at grassroot level.

Recent study in the journal Science mapped the global potential tree coverage and showed that 4.4 billion hectares of canopy cover could exist under the current climate. Excluding existing trees, agricultural and urban areas, scientists found that there is a scope for an extra 0.9 billion hectares of canopy cover, which could store 205 gigatonnes of carbon in areas that would naturally support woodlands and forests. This highlights global tree restoration as one of the most effective carbon drawdown solutions to date, once they reached maturity.

If we want to keep global average temperature increase below our 2°C target, then we will have to increase global forest cover along with keeping fossil fuels in the ground and maximum reliability on renewable energy.

So, not only do plantation, but also take ‘care after plantation’ to fulfill our environmental duties with responsibility. Better environment is not only our right but duty also.

We should take responsibility to ‘Care After Plantation’ for a ‘Better Future’.

@PrabhatMisra

October 16, 2019

Firozabad, Uttar Pradesh, India

Are ‘Plantation Forests’ Ecofriendly Or Just ‘Green Deserts’?

A forest is a complex, biodiversity-rich, self-regenerating ecosystem, consisting of soil, water, microclimate, and a wide variety of plants and animals in mutual coexistence, on a piece of land. Trees are naturally regenerated in ‘natural forests’. Natural Forests have ‘high biomass density’, i.e., they sequester more carbon and have ‘continuous plant growth’.

A natural forest is made up of many layers, i.e., it is multi-storey. The main layers of all forest types are the ‘forest floor’, ‘the understory’ and ‘the canopy’. The ’emergent layer’ exists in tropical rainforests. Each layer has a different set of flora and fauna, depending upon the availability of sunlight, moisture and food. Thus, natural forests are ‘biologically diverse’, and ‘home to many rare species, threatened species, and endangered species’. ‘Natural Forests’ host more than 70% of terrestrial biodiversity and are critical for life on the planet.

Forests grow around the world, from the equator to polar regions. Different climates have different kinds of forests e.g., in cold climates conifers dominate, in temperate and tropical climates flowering plants dominate. Different rainfall also has different kinds of forests. No forest exist in deserts, just a few xerophytes are dispersed.

Anthropogenic factors (human impact on the environment) are encouraging logging, forest fires, acid rain, invasive species introduction, shifting cultivation and deforestation. Excessive deforestation reduces biodiversity, affect natural forests and also indigenous species that rely upon old-growth forest habitat. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization report-2010, ‘agriculture expansion is increasing deforestation’.

In 1997, the World Resources Institute recorded that only 20% of the world’s original forests remained in large intact tracts of undisturbed forests, and among these, more than 75% of forests are found in three countries: boreal forests of Russia and Canada and the rainforest of Brazil.

Plantation programmes are going on globally, along with conservation of natural forests, to protect biodiversity, to ‘change climate change’ by increasing the ‘carbon sink area’, for soil and water conservation, and for industrial wood production. Plantations are most likely to contribute to biodiversity when established on degraded lands rather than replacing natural ecosystems and when indigenous tree species are used rather than exotic species.

But, ‘new forests‘ or ‘plantation forests‘ or ‘anthropogenic forests‘ are not completely equivalent to natural forests or old-growth forests in terms of species diversity, resilience and carbon capture. Plantations, going globally, are usually monoculture, that is, large saplings of the same species are planted across a given area, whereas a natural forest contains a more diverse range of tree species. In a true sense, ‘single species plantation forests’ are not ‘natural forests’.

Plantations of single tree species may have very different ecosystem characteristics than do many native forests. Monoculture plantations have very little biodiversity, require human intervention and use of large amounts of herbicides and pesticides. They have ‘less biomass density‘, sequester less carbon and have a single storey. These are managed forests, in which the trees of the same age, and generally of the same species, are planted; this is done chiefly to maximise the production of the wood fibre.

Plantations may include tree species that would not naturally occur in the area e.g. hybrids and genetically modified trees.

Plantations are always young forests in ecological terms. This means that the forests produced by plantations do not contain the type of growth, soil or wildlife typical of old-growth natural forest ecosystems.

‘Plantation Forests’ are the cause of numerous environmental problems in many countries because of mostly single-species dominance, for instance in Indonesia where ‘palm oil plantation’ is causing a threat to many species including ‘red apes’ or ‘orangutans’. Only15% of native species can survive the transition from primary forest to a plantation. In Indonesia, multinational pulp companies have harvested large areas of natural forest. About 50% of the 1.4 million hectares of pulpwood plantations in Indonesia have been established, which was earlier natural forest land.

Single species plantations have a negative impact on biodiversity, communities, and local economies which includes, loss of biodiversity, depletion of water sources and water pollution from pesticides and agrochemicals used.

Annually, September 21st is observed as the ‘International Day of Struggle against Monoculture Tree Plantations’.

A massive increase in monoculture tree plantations is predicted by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation: between 40 and 90 million hectares will be planted by the year 2030.

So, next time, when you go for plantation, then first ensure that it is not going to be a monoculture. This step will be helpful to save the depleting biodiversity and will maintain the ‘high biomass density’ of the ‘future forest’ so that they will be able to sequester more carbon and will help to ‘change climate change’.

Published in ‘Hindustan Times Lucknow edition on 15/10/2019.

Why to worry about fossil fuels?

We are living in the 21st century, the world’s population is about 7.6 billion today, and it is expected to be 10 billion by 2050. Such a growing size is putting pressure on our ecology. Biodiversity and ecosystems are under stress. Our daily life and actions are not eco-friendly. Humans are destroying their future to fulfil their current unsustainable needs and ambitions. We are in the period of ‘Climate Crisis’.

It is said that we are moving towards the ‘Century Of Renewable Energy’ but our expanding urbanisation, industrialisation, agriculture and developmental activities are mostly dependent upon fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) for their energy needs. This, in turn, is causing the melting of polar ice, ocean acidification, coastal erosion, increasing global temperatures, floods, droughts, increasing sea level and depleting biodiversity.

Fossil fuels based energy, a fundamental driver of the Industrial Revolution, has played a dominant role in global energy systems. Fossil fuel production and consumption began with coal and its first reported use dates back to 4000BC, in China. In the nineteenth century, coal surpassed biomass in providing the largest share of the global energy supply and in the twentieth-century petroleum and natural gas overtook coal. Currently, crude oil is the largest fossil energy source, accounting for around 39 percent of fossil energy, followed by coal and natural gas at 33 and 28 percent, respectively.

The use of fossil energy sources has continued to grow, despite rapid growth in renewable energy sources. Renewable energy sources are not replacing fossil fuels but are rather expanding the overall amount of energy that is produced. This is the reason for increasing GHG emissions and ‘climate havoc’. We are under the grip of global ‘Climate Emergency’ and moving towards an irreversible phase of ‘Climate Crisis’.

This year alone, Greenland has lost enough ice to raise the average global sea level by more than a millimetre. The UN Climate Action Summit 2019 revealed that, as ice sheets and glaciers melt, the rapid sea-level rise could affect one billion people by 2050.

We cannot change our past but can change our future. We have two primary choices at present: either to accept the conditions as they exist and wait for the end of the future or accept the responsibility to ‘Change Climate Change’ for the sake of a livable, better and more sustainable future. It is upon us i.e. current generation, to choose a future, for better or worse. If we want to cherish every precious moment on earth, then we must take urgent ‘climate action’ for a ‘sustainable future’. If we want to keep global average temperature increase below our 2°C target, then we will have to leave the majority (up to 80 percent) of our fossil fuels in the ground and increase global forest cover equal to the land area of Canada (10 million km2), by the year 2050.

So, all humans should do their best and surrender the worst for their future’s best.